The Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics
Election Day 2009 Analysis
Ben Dworkin
Director of the Rebovich Institute for NJ Politics at Rider University
These comments are for public use, so long as there is appropriate attribution.
Referendum Vs. Choice
Chris Christie successfully framed the debate as a referendum on Jon Corzine. The Governor spent millions of dollars trying to convince voters that this election was more of a choice and that Christie was a less desirable alternative. He was unsuccessful.
The Numbers
Just because New Jersey is a blue state doesn’t mean there isn’t a Republican Party here as well.
The bottom line: Democratic areas under-performed and Republican areas over-performed; that is, Republican counties did vastly better than one might have expected.
Ocean County is a good example of Republican over-performance. It provided an astonishing 70,000 vote plurality for Christie. Four years ago, this same county gave Doug Forrester a little under 22,000 vote margin. When one county bumps its margins by nearly 50,000 votes, all the old election models can get thrown out the window. Today, we saw an amazing surge in Republican support in the shore area.
Teaneck, the biggest Democratic town in Bergen County, and hometown of Democratic Loretta Weinberg, is a good example of Democratic underperformance. Democrats should have won by at least 7,600 votes and instead won by only 6,500. It was a metaphor for what was happening all across the state.
The Campaign
The Christie campaign made a choice to avoid being too specific when it came to explaining how he would handle the state’s fiscal crisis. He never really went beyond a promise to cut government. Over the years, candidates from both sides of the aisles have used this political strategy successfully.
I’ve suggested that, in 2009, in the middle of the biggest recession of the last 60 years, voters might reject vagueness and demand more substance from their elected leaders. Tonight, it looks like I was wrong. The desire for change was clearly more important than any specifics a campaign might have offered. That doesn’t mean that the voters are wrong or even misguided. But one should not expect anything different in future campaigns since obviously the strategy continues to work.
One of the surprises on this election day is that despite the obvious voter dissatisfaction with Corzine and such a strong Christie win, the Republicans only picked up one Assembly seat. This might be considered an opportunity that got away for the Republicans.
The Candidates
Fundamentally, Jon Corzine was never able to articulate his accomplishments in a way that resonated with voters. That left him at a severe disadvantage. He was able to drive up Christie’s negatives, but never moved beyond 40% approval for himself. This undermined the massive GOTV effort mounted by the Democrats. It is hard to be effective with your GOTV if your candidate is not well liked. When you’re not selling a popular product, no number of “boots on the ground” is likely to overcome that.
Chris Christie’s victory speech mentioned the word “hope” about a half-dozen times. This is interesting because he has now taken both parts of the Obama message. Previously, he only talked about “change.”
The National Implications
The surge in GOP votes from Monmouth and Ocean have to be examined more closely. Perhaps there is some “send Obama a message” going on there.
But, for the most part, this is a state race whose outcome was determined largely by state issues framed by an unpopular incumbent.
Nationally, this election will be seen as a referendum on Obama. It will become a self-fulfilling prophecy, even if it is not grounded in reality. Because of what happened tonight – and in Virginia – the national Republicans will be able to raise more money and recruit better candidates to run for Congress in 2010.
New Jersey’s race for governor will have national implications, but not by design, just by interpretation.
The Future
Everyone will play nice and will reach across the aisle, but I think we are eventually going to see some real difficulties between the Democratic-controlled legislature and the Republican governor.
It’s a huge opportunity for Christie to lead by using the bully pulpit of the Governor’s office. Jon Corzine only rarely took on the legislature this way.
Politically, there will be a lot of positioning as both sides prepare for the mid-term elections in two years when both houses of the legislature will be up. Before then, there is a legislative redistricting process which can completely re-shape the political landscape.
It will be interesting to see how Christie sets out to re-shape the state’s Supreme Court with a more like-minded conservative ideology.
For more coverage on Election Day 2009, click here.
Corzine, Christie and Daggett Visit Rider’s Lawrenceville Campus in September
Rider’s Lawrenceville campus is a mere five miles from the New Jersey State House, but when the Garden State’s next governor takes the oath of office in January, he might recall that his path took him straight through the Bart Luedeke Center Theater. The Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics of Rider University hosted all three major candidates in the state’s gubernatorial race over the course of one week in September through its inaugural Governing New Jersey series.
“The entire nation is carefully following New Jersey’s race for the governor’s office, as it is one of only two statewide contests in the country this November,” said Ben Dworkin, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics. “We’re proud to say that the road to the statehouse literally leads through Rider University. All three candidates recognize the high level of interest present among voters in our region, and that’s why the Rebovich Institute is committed to giving the candidates a chance to speak to them.”
All speeches were held at the Rider University Bart Luedeke Center Theater.
To view the full video:Christopher Daggett, the independent candidate for governor, spoke on Tuesday, September 15.
Chris Christie, the Republican challenger for the state’s top office, spoke on Wednesday, September 16.
Incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon S. Corzine concluded the Governing New Jersey series on Tuesday, September 22.
To listen to the full audio:
Christopher Daggett
Chris Christie
Gov. Jon S. Corzine
| The Rider Institute for New Jersey Politics is dedicated to public service and scholarly analysis of government, public policy, campaigns and elections in New Jersey. To be included in the Institute, please complete the official Institute sign-up form. |  |
| Founded in 2001 by the late Professor David Rebovich (1949 – 2007), the Institute is a dynamic and creative home where students can network, study and gain practical experience in New Jersey politics. In 2008, Ben Dworkin was named the new Director of the Institute for New Jersey Politics. In September, the Institute was re-named the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics.
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| An integral component of the Institute’s success is the active participation of Rider students in all of our programs. The Institute is committed to assisting students with research projects, internships, service learning opportunities, job placement, and overall career development. |  |
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Typical programs include:
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Programming is generously supported by The Hennessy Fund for the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics.
